Before The Game

It's one of those days that makes you glad to live in Melbourne. Most of the other days are when you are living somewhere else.

At the supermarket, everyone was coming out of the woodwork. A saturday morning and everyone was loading up on pies, sausage rolls, tomato sauce and beer. I would not attend a wedding today. Some asian couple was though, and I thought, poor things, missing out on the Grand Final to see another overly optimistic couple pledge eternal love to eachother.

But the atmosphere isn't what I'll talk about. I thought I'd make my predictions for the game before it unfolds.

1. The weather: Fuck the weather, rain is rare enough in Melbourne, and rare enough in september particularly for anyone to know what effect it will have or who it will favor.

2. The bookies: They fucked up, suffering from recency bias. Geelong became favorites after slaughtering Collingwood. Collingwood are just plain not contenders. They played a half of a football match and dissappeared from the game. Everyone, media included got a hard on from the performance, forgetting that Geelong does indeed have something to prove and is indeed trying to redeem itself for its late loserness sparked off by their defeat at the hands of St Kilda.
Three weeks ago the Saints also handed Collingwood their arse on a plate. The only reason anybody in the media talks up Collingwoods chances is because it is plain and simple good for business. Malthouse has fluffers, Buckley has fluffers, even Joffa has fluffers in the media because Collingwood sell all kinds of crap.
If Collingwood came out harder against Geelong, then the same is true of the Bulldogs, even though Rocket Rod is probably the best coach in the league right now, when they were trounced by the cats they weren't in a Win-or-Go-Home mindset. Dogs are the better team out of 3rd and 4th on the ladder, and by a good margin.
The Dogs gave no quarter in the attempt to get to the big dance today. Collingwood sputtered and died.
Geelong are favorites because on paper their wins look more impressive, but they didn't play St Kilda to get there. St Kilda are like Sydney, in that their defence puts them into the position to win, not their offence. They suffocate the offense, in the backline, tackle in the midfield. Offense whilst good is the afterthought. Mark my fucking words, it will be anyones game throught at least 3 quarters.
I'm not saying Geelong will lose, I'm just saying there is no favorite today, the bookies odds are based on the betting.

3. The Brownlow, is bullshit, the more I think about it. At some point Referees changed their minds, only players from winning teams should get the votes (unless it was exceptional), more of a guideline than a hard and fast rule, in the 1990's their were only two brownlow medallists that playd a grand final the year they won it. thus far in the 2000s, 8 brownlow winners have played in the finals the year they won it. So winning is in for brownlow votes, that made sense. Otherwise a great player on a shitty side outshone the team of great players who shared the ball betwixt them.
But its known now as a midfielders medal.
What I put to you is this, being a midfielders medal, it makes no bones if you are kicking to richo (an entertaining but inconsistent and unreliable full forward) or Tony Lockett or Wayne Carey (twix of the best FF in history). The umpires view the crucial job being the delivery not the finishing. As such, the Brownlow also sees no difference in kicking the ball to Mooney instead of Riewoldt. The forwards aren't important, the midfielders are. Play it by the numbers, whoever sends the ball forward most will win, not the one who recieves it forward most.
Curiously though Browny a full forward was one of the best polling players, where Riewoldt got 9 for the season. I don't think this Grand final will be played in the Midfield somehow, it will be determined in the St's backline, Geelongs Forward 50.
What makes it strategically possible to load the game back their for the Saints is having Riewoldt up forward. One of the best offensive threats in the league, not to mention the preliminary finals.

4. The Crowd. For Saints fans, the day is just so much bigger. Plain and simple. AFL isn't quite on the same level as NBA as to how much a difference the crowd participation makes psychologically on the players, but it does effect it. The St Kilda players only have to lift their eyes slightly today to get inspiration. Just slightly.

I'm calling it for the Saints, maybe wishful thinking. But that's my prediction.
What would I know I'm just a doctor.