Bam Adebayo's 83 and Goodhart's Law.
Goodhart's Law is the best description of Mediocrity
For years now, which is a relatively recent thing for me; I've been struggling to articulate something I see all around me.
First I told a story archetype, that's quite old (to me) now: History can be summed up as, someone does something of value to their community and the community gives that someone some form of recognition. Then someone else, seeing this, desires to recreate that recognition for themselves; but not the value.
People are already impatient with my ability to get to a point, so telling a whole story, even one that is uncomfortably (for me) low in detail, is not great. I thought I could express this concept through the fallacy "affirming the consequent" this is like, someone who makes a great product that everybody wants to buy, gets rich; Bill Gates is rich, therefore he must have made a great product that everybody wants to bur. But like, people get rich from forcing people to buy their shitty products, from stealing, from frivolous lawsuits, from lottery, from real estate.
It took me a while, to figure out that what I'm getting at, is the problem of mediocrity, and I think "what to do about mediocrity" is a tremendous problem. Goodhart's law describes this problem succinctly, beautifully and tacitly, describes the mindset of the mediocre:
"That every measure which becomes a target becomes a bad measure" ~ as articulated by Keith Hoskin in 1996.
And last week, the basketball world produced a perfect example: a long standing "record" fell after two decades. You may have heard of Kobe Bryant, dare I say, you are even likely to have heard about Kobe Bryant, because Kobe Bryant is one of the all-time great athletes, and won an Oscar for an animated short and was in the news for an alleged sexual assault, and for a fiery death in a helicopter crash.
Kobe Bryant was not famous for being famous though, he was famous for basketball. Winning 5 NBA championships and dominating the decade 2001-2010. In 2006 he scored the second most points by a player in an NBA game - 81 points, and the most points scored in a modern-era (3 point line, 82 game regular season, two-month long post-season consisting of 15 best-of-seven series) that was up until last week, where Bam Adebayo scored 83 points in the game.
You probably haven't heard of Bam Adebayo. Even though he scored 83 points in an NBA game last week. Bam is not a household name, he is, to be brief, an NBA mediocrity.
Kobe's 81 point game was significant and celebrated because it demonstrated Kobe's eliteness. The 81 points, in other words, describe Kobe's elite-scorer status. Particularly, if you try to learn who Kobe was and why people paid so much attention to him, you will probably come across the esoteric term "shot creation" what this refers to, was that Kobe was like a weed that thrives in poor soil, through a combination of pump-fakes, foot-work, dribbling, fade-away jump shots etc. Kobe "created" scoring opportunities for himself.
The 81 points in a game, was not a target, it was a measure, when Bam and the Miami Heat (and arguably, their opponents in the game, the Washington Wizards) began chasing the target, 81 points becomes a bad measure.
Here is a description from ESPN writer Tim McMahon:
ESPN writer Tim MacMahon heavily criticized Adebayo, stating, "He's jacking up threes while being triple-teamed. I mean, it honestly was just awful, hideous, disgusting basketball down the stretch that I admit I was cracking up laughing while watching."
But more importantly, a few days after the "feat" Bam's reaction to the criticism his performance garnered:
"...And that's the thing that's crazy when they talk about 'unethical' part of basketball, if I have 70 with 9 minutes to go who would just be like 'you know coach just take me out'? yeah right..." ~ Bam Adebayo, emphasis and punctuation added, actual video here.
And this might be where, I feel most sympathetic to Bam. In his own words, he doesn't understand the detractors of his big night. I don't know much about Bam who kind of got on the radar in the same way that the whole world now knows about the Straight of Hormuz, but formally speaking this rebuttal to the detractors - those talking about "unethical" basketball - is an example of the informal fallacy 'appeal to personal incredulity' and its for this reason I have an impression, to put it politely, that Bam is not one of basketball's great intellects, like Bill Russell, Michael Jordan, Charles Barkley, Dennis Rodman, Kobe Bryant, Jeff Teague, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar or Phil Jackson.
Bam shares a mindset with many people that it is as simple as 83 > 81. For him, his 83 point game is the same as a Guinness World Record (example "most coconuts smashed with one hand") and this is what likely, the media environment in which Bam lives, has struggled to articulate - why it is such a good example of Goodhart's law.
Kobe's 81 point game was perhaps the single greatest offensive performance in the professional sport of basketball ever, Bam smashed 83 coconuts with one hand.
9.58 seconds
As at writing, 9.58 seconds is the world record time for the 100m sprint, set by Usain Bolt of Jamaica in 2009. But 100m world record is not reducable to getting a person from point A to point B (100m away) as fast as possible. You cannot for example, fire them from a cannon, it cannot be downhill, they cannot be on roller-blades or a motorcycle or inside a drag racer.
Ridiculous stipulations aside, a record will not be recognised if there is a tail-wind of greater than 2.0 meters per second. There is no restrictions on altitude at which a record may be set, however times recorded at an event that takes place over 1000m will be marked with an 'A' because of the lower atmospheric pressure.
Sport does not get much simpler than the 100m, but there are rules regarding what constitutes a false start, there will be rules about what kind of shoes can be worn, there are a lot of rules about what athletes can put in their bodies.
As such, if we hear tomorrow that someone has broken Bolt's record tomorrow, aside from finding out at a later date that they failed their drug test as happened with Tim Montgomery and Ben Johnson.
In the case of drug cheats, we have to presume a mindset. Functionally it is going to be something like 'to be the best I have to be the fastest, it doesn't matter how.'
Hopefully, this is a very clear demonstration of Goodhart's law, the whole point of a 100m race is to find out who is fastest, to make a broad generalisation, people are less interested in who is fastest on performance enhancing drugs, just as they are less interested in who is fastest on a motorcycle. (I am aware that motorcycle racing is its own sport, and people are interested in it, whether it is drag racing or moto-gp, motocross etc. the point being, who is fastest on a motorcycle is a different question to who can run the fastest).
"Most points scored in an NBA game" doesn't have anywhere near the stipulations that the 100m race does. As such, it makes it a deeper study in how Goodhart's law functions, than the 1988 Seoul Olympics men's 100m sprint and the rampant juicing going on.
In the NBA probably the most relevant terminology is "stat padding" Goodhart's law has long applied to, for example, player contracts. For example, a traditional basketball position is the 'point guard' their role traditionally is to bring the ball down the court and initiate the offensive play.
Statisticians trying to figure out what made a good point guard, in order to inform decisions by team franchises about trades and contracts, noticed that good point guards passed the ball to a player well positioned to make a shot, bad point guards pass the ball to a player in a bad position to make a shot. This was described as an 'assist' which is a pass by a player that then results in points being scored without a player having to dribble or make another pass.
This descriptive statistic that could be used to describe why Magic Johnson, John Stockton, Jason Kidd, Oscar Robertson etc. were good pointguards, then gets written into player contracts as a target eg. 'if you average 8 assists per game we will extend your contract and pay you an extra $2m per year.' at which point, a player may be on a fast break where they could easily score 2 points by performing a layup themselves, but instead they pass it behind their back to a teammate who performs the layup because the assist is worth more to the player than the 2 points is to the team.
If basketball is too much not your thing, the pop-science book "Freakonomics" gave a famous example of this shallow understanding of stats, by citing a study that found the kids that performed best in school had a lot of books at home, they didn't even have to read the books, just have lots of books in their home. A local politician heard this, and set up a program to provide all kids with free book collections before they reached school age. Freakonomics breaks down that correlation does not equal causation and that the magical presence of books was likely a symptom of a child having smarter parents and passed this on via genetics, which was why the kids didn't have to read the books, they were just the kids of adults who had met at college in the 70s.
Again, I would stress that Bam is a mediocrity, there will not be anyone in the NBA who sees a player that has averaged almost 20 points per game for most of his career as an NBA starter has suddenly blossomed into an elite scorer, it is likely that Bam would 'not want to belong to any club that would have me as a member' should he come across an optimistic owner who does believe Bam has the potential to explode for 50 points at any given time.
What he doesn't seem to understand though, is his historical role in changing an 80+ point performance from a meaningful description of greatness, into a meaningless target.
Point made, Here's the detail
Writing about the NBA is apparently, death for my blog. I don't have access to the audience that is interested in the NBA, and I do not possess the skills to make my audience care about the NBA.
Anyway, last week, Bam's 83 point game was something both confusing and clarifying that happened.
The 2nd most points scored in NBA history. Who is Bam Adebayo and why has nobody ever heard of him? Exactly, Bam is a mid-tier NBA all-star and US Olympic team member. My rule of thumb would be that your general formula for an all-star is some combination of 25 points per game, 5 rebounds per game and 5 assists per game, and by combination you can chop 5 points off and add 5 rebounds or 5 assists.
Bam almost does this, having almost 20 ppg and almost 10 rebounds. He was basically on track to have a long but largely unaccomplished professional basketball career, before retiring and being (largely) forgotten.
He now occupies an odd space as a record holder, the NBA has a strange record for second most points ever scored in an NBA game. A viable 'second is right after first' spotlight because Wilt Chamberlain holds the record for most points ever scored in an NBA game at 100. Wilt Chamberlain is this statistical outlier that the NBA basically says 'Wilt doesn't count' in the same breath as his voice is invoked.
Scoring 100 points is very hard because generally in the NBA teams score on average between 98 and 116 points a game. So one person has to basically do the productivity of a whole team, which is easily countered by double or triple teaming the ball hog.
This is likely too much context. Bam did not eclipse Wilt's actual scoring record, he eclipsed Kobe's 81 point performance. People around the world have heard of Kobe Bryant. Kobe's 81 point game, is but an anecdote in Kobe's illustrious career. and so this is a good time to bring in some theory, about why Bam's 83 point game is important.
Making Cents
So here's the thing, saying that Kobe Bryant once scored 81 points in a game is like saying "the sky is blue" and saying that Bam Adebayo once scored 83 points in a game is like saying "the sky is Burberry tartan."
And sure enough, when you hear this extraordinary claim that an extremely average NBA player eclipsed a player in the pantheon, you want to know how, because it makes no sense.
I'll walk you through my investigation process. The first sense making factor you learn, is that the Miami Heat were playing the Washington Wizards, the second worst team in the weaker Eastern Conference, a team that is tanking, a team that is actively trying to lose games to improve its draft position, a team that acquired two all-star calibre players in Trae Young and Anthony Davis this season and has no intention of playing them until next season.
The second sense making factor was the end game score - the Heat won 150 to the Wizards' 129. This is basically a game where nobody is playing defense. These scores historically have been reserved for NBA All-star games. (The average game score is referred to as 'pace' with different eras seeing higher or lower scores, rule changes make it harder to compare one era to another for example scoring was historically low during Jordan and Kobe's career, referred to as the 'dead ball' era. The current NBA has one of the highest historical paces, only the 60s compares) The team with the best record in the NBA - the Oklahoma City Thunder, and defending champions have only exceeded the Wizards' losing score of 129, a dozen times.
The third sense making factor was Bam's stat line, he made 36 of 43 attempted free throws. As a youtube commenter pointed out, Bam attempted more free throws than he played minutes in the game. He now holds the record for most free throws ever attempted in a game, and most free throws made in a game, eclipsing Dwight Howard's previous record, a big man who was victim of the "Hack-a-Wilt" or "Hack-a-Shaq" strategy where you intentionally foul a poor free-throw shooter to force them to make free throws instead of dunking the ball.
And then the whole picture becomes clear. Bam's 83 point game is a perfect example of Goodhart's law, and also how confusing the question of 'if losers win, are they still losers?'
Kobe's 81 point game, in short was a game where a player put his team on his back and went to work for the win. Bam's 83 point game, in short was a game where a coach, the team, the officiators and the opposition team all worked together to help a mediocrity get a record.
An 81 point game in accordance with Goodhart's law, described Kobe's greatness. An 83 point game is useless at describing Bam Adabeyo. It was not Bam's awakening and emergence as a great player, Bam would go onto score 20 points in a loss to the Orlando Magic in his next game, including 6 free throws from 10 attempts.
We can predict, that without significant trade moves to beef up the Miami Heat's roster, or trading Bam to a team where he is the third or fourth scoring option, Bam will likely not win any NBA championships, and certainly not be named the finals MVP. He is not going on to win any season scoring titles, or MVP awards, he is going to regress to his mean performance of around 20 points per game.
It does not even predict that a Miami Heat game will be a particularly good game to watch, because Bam might do something amazing or incredible. It is likely the case, that Bam's 83 point game was not a good game to watch (I didn't watch it, because the Heat are not an interesting team this season) given that the Heat were up 20 points, the game more or less in the bag, when it ground to a halt of endless fouling and free throws to get Bam across the line.
What I do predict, is that in the next 5 years, there will be an influx of 81+ point game performances, because Bam is a nobody. Last season there were a flurry of 70+ point games, in the space of a week, somebody eclipsing Kobe's 81 mark was I felt, a matter of time. I just expected it from one of the loser-All star players like Joel Embiid, SGA, Kevin Durant etc. The thin skinned accomplished players who suffer most from unfavourable comparisons to the players of yesteryear.
Now that Bam has gone and done it, in the naughty sense, he's given permission to the better all-stars to take it from him to win the NBA some respectability back. I can now see Victor Wembenyana, Jalen Brown, Anthony Edwards, Luka Doncic, Jason Taytum, Donovan Mitchell etc. etc. not to mention all the entitled diva players who are still better than Bam Adebayo.
Because previously, if you were a player who scored 60 points in 3 quarters and your team was up by 20, you would be sat on the bench. Now, this could become the new NBA pastime for whenever you are playing a team that is deliberately tanking.
There's also a sense in which, if players made a coordinated effort to eclipse Bam's performance for the right reasons, I would be right behind it. As an act of protest against both the current debilitating rule-set that has basically made defensive play impossible and the game less interesting, and the practice of tanking, to force the commissioner to act.
I also am factoring in the commissioner of this era of the NBA, Adam Silver, who is really the architect of this problem. He will not act to clamp down on the lack of defence in this era until it becomes an unignorable problem, and even then reluctantly.
Because of course this is all the fault of...
Lebronze James
I think at some point I will write a non-fiction book about Lebron James. I feel he is a great focal point for understanding the early 21st century. I may have to write myself a post I can just link to so I don't succumb to the temptation of writing a Lebron explainer every time I need to explain something through the example of Lebron James.
Lebron's career is fundamentally a product of anxiety. There is a financial incentive for professional sports to have the greatest player ever to be actively playing at any given time.
The trouble is, the greatest player to ever play any given game sort of just happens. In MLB it was Babe Ruth in the 1910's-20's over a century ago now, in NFL it happened recently in Tom Brady, in a movie like script where he only got his chance when the Patriot's Quarterback was injured, and in the NBA a younger professional league, it happened in the 90s.
MJ wasn't planned, it just happened. A few may have seen it coming, but most tuned in when it started happening.
Now, given a premise that you can't make the greatest player of all time happen, what you can do is tell people the greatest player of all time is happening.
That is the anxiety response of trying to seize control. Lebron was a promise that someone of good conscious would not make. He was kind of a contract with basketball fandom "don't worry, we'll give you a player even better than MJ so keep watching." Having entered such an ill-advised contract, there was a lot of post-facto efforts to make good on the promise.
Largely speaking, Lebron was just given things, and that has never stopped.
Among a divided NBA fandom, some refer to the Lebron era as containing "the era of player entitlement"
I had written out the details in length, but for brevities sake, this era is characterised by players demanding trades to specific destinations, "load management" that evolved into players not playing games they do not feel like playing, the degeneration of All-Star weekend into a farce with no NBA stars participating in the Slam Dunk contest, and no competitive play in the All-Star game, a relaxing of the NBA dress code, allowing players to choose between focusing on basketball and being a fashion model for social media.
Almost all of the derided player behaviours that characterise the era of player entitlement can find their precedent in Lebron James, the demanding trades to specific teams begins with Lebron's "The Decision" and forming a super team after leading his own team to a championship proved too hard and Kobe Bryant had 5 championships to his 0. He also had New Orleans star Anthony Davis sign to his agency and then demand a trade to the Los Angeles Lakers to play with Lebron James, refusing to consider any other franchise and greatly hamstringing New Orleans ability to get the best exchange for Davis.
Lebron also never entered the slam dunk contest, we can't know, but the most likely reason being that he was afraid he wouldn't win against the likes of Dwight Howard, Nate Robinson, Blake Griffin etc. and just couldn't risk it, even though most likely the NBA institution would simply have handed him a win should he choose to compete, even now.
Coming back to Bam's 83 mediocrity, there are too many precedents in Lebron's career to really name. Youtuber Angry Old Hoops or AOH has obsessively documented Lebron's stat-padding.
Lebron is a direct beneficiary of a death spiral, the less people that watch his games, the more impressive his stats look. People tuned in to see Michael Jordan fly over Hakeem Olajuwan and Dikembe Mutumbo to viciously dunk, this was exciting basketball that captured the imagination of the world. People do not tune in to see an old man who doesn't have the energy to run back and help on defense receive a lobbed pass from his shooting guard and cherry pick a slam dunk with no defenders in sight. It is not exciting to watch a missed 3-point shot clatter off the backboard and watch all four of Lebron's teammates scatter like pigeons so he can collect the uncontested defensive rebound.
All the people who do not watch Lebron's games anymore just see that Lebron scored 28 points, 11 rebounds and 4 assists tonight, at 41 years of age in his 22nd season. But Lebron doesn't get those numbers it is a concerted effort by literally hundreds of people to get Lebron those numbers. The Lakers organisation has been sacrificing wins to get Lebron those numbers. Players who are younger and better are forced to pass the ball to Lebron so he can get his numbers.
What AOH has been documenting on his channel, is that Lebron causes his teams to lose in order to look good and his coach, his team, his organisation and the media go along with it to maintain the narrative that people are watching the miraculous longevity of the greatest player to ever play.
So the playbook was all there for Bam to stat-pad his way to 83 points. Bam's coach Erick Spoelstra used to coach Lebron when he played for Miami.
US Black Culture has lost its cool
There's another baller to blame and that is Barrack Obama. Not in the way white-supremacist Christian Nationalist republicans blame Obama for everything while being too chickenshit to stand up to the buffoon their party enables and inflicts upon the world.
But in the sense that Obama made forever a fact, that a black man can be the most powerful in the world, respected and revered, be President of the United States, win a Noble Peace Prize. Black Culture has entered it's Rocky III period, and Eastern European players in the NBA are its Clubber Lang.
Will Smith stood up and slapped Chris Rock, but not only Chris Rock, an entire generation who suddenly had flashbacks of Will rapping the theme song to "The Fresh Prince of Bel Air" when they were 12, and "Wicky-wicky-wild-wild-west" where he was inexplicably dressed as a cowboy rapping about the wild west for some reason (nobody saw the film) when they were 16, and him cracking wise next to Tommy Lee Jones in MiB when they were 18 and suddenly asking themselves "was that cool, or incredibly lame..." and not liking what they found there.
I think Bam and almost everyone in the NBA, particularly US players are conscious that they have declined in public esteem compared to previous generations. They sense that they are seen as immature, entitled brats. Under Lebron's leadership, it is hard to understand why. The person they've been told is the greatest ever, has lost more NBA Finals than he has won, he has accomplished less in one of the longest careers than players who aren't even in the discussion of who he is greater than, like Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Shaquille O'Neal, Steph Curry...
They are employed by and in an organisation that cannot tell them the truth of their circumstances. They do interviews with people who have to lie to their faces or face losing their jobs. The people whose careers do not depend on continued employment in basketball media keep cropping up on podcasts and saying very different things than the ESPN anchors.
They suffer constant comparison to players of the past, players who played their entire careers for one team, players who routinely played all 82 games of the season, who played sick and injured, players people seemed to like and respect more but were paid significantly less money.
I'm sure even Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra suffers constant unfavourable comparisons to Phil Jackson, coach of Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant.
I think all of these factors conspired to produce a huddle in which Spoelstra and the Miami Heat conspired to try and relieve the current era of the looming shadow of Kobe Bryant, all the "Kobe wouldn't have tolerated this..." "Kobe would never abide this..." "People are only brave enough to say this because Kobe is dead..."
They are suffocating under the failure of their own anxiously constructed narrative that "nothing bad can happen. It can only good happen." People living in a concerted effort to diminish Kobe Bryant in order to prop up Lebron, that likely, through no fault of their own, Bam and the Miami Heat didn't know they were out of touch with reality.
The Dunning-Kruger Effect and the Response
I don't want to spend too long on the Dunning-Kruger effect. In brief, the effect basically says you can't know you are incompetent. Goodhart's law is far more relevant. The incompetence though is in not understanding the significance of Kobe's 81 point game.
Clearly, to Bam, to the Miami Heat, and to many it is just a number. 83 is higher than 81, why would people try and take that away from Bam? His mother was there, his girlfriend was there, the crowd gave him a standing ovation.
The most controversial thing I will say, is that most sports fans don't understand sports. Most sports fans think that sports is about winning. Sports is about competition. This creates a Dunning-Kruger dividing line between the fans themselves. Incompetent sports fans think what they want is for their team to win every game, every year. Competent sports fans recognise they want their team to win hard-fought contests.
A meme has cropped up that goes "game recognise game" its pretty much the opposite of the Dunning-Kruger effect. It is often applied to how Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant talk about each other.
Let me though, talk about Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan for a bit. My appreciation of Tim Duncan has grown over the years, but overall, I think he remains somewhat boring to watch. In a sense he is as accomplished as Kobe Bryant, winning 5 championships, and they were basically contemporaries, though Duncan was drafted a year after Kobe and won his last championship after Kobe won his 5th.
Now it was and is within the NBA's power to change the rules so as to make the game easier for Tim Duncan and harder for Kobe, or easier for Kobe and harder for Tim Duncan. For example, Kobe predominantly a mid-range shooter, the NBA could have moved the three-point line in so Kobe could regularly score 3-4points (and-1s) and Duncan's Spurs would have had 1-2 less championships and Kobe's Lakers 1-2 more.
Conversely, they could have changed the rules to get rid of the 3-point line altogether. Bringing Kobe's scoring potential down far more than Duncan's, a low-post player.
The point of these hypotheticals, is to draw attention to the calibration issues a sport has. For most of NBA history, it was a game of the centre, Bill Russell, Wilt, Kareem, Walton, Moses Malone, Hakeem, Shaq, Robinson, Jokic.
I would argue, that for numerous complicated reasons, that show up in the ratings of NBA finals, that if you have to calibrate the rules one way and not the other, you want the game to reward Kobe's style of play and not Tim Duncan "The Big Fundamental"'s style of play. Please note, I'm not saying I wish they did, these two competing dynasties were arguably perfectly calibrated.
The thing is, basketball isn't good when it is reduced to a matter of being tall. This isn't to say the dominant big-men of NBA history aren't skilled. But the game would suck if it was a simple matter of 'lob it to the tall guy who puts it in the basket.' the rules are calibrated to not make it this easy.
Jordan didn't come out of nowhere, "Pistol" Pete Marovich was likely the first real showman of the NBA, combining skill and flash, he was the first white person to be offered a contract with the Harlem Globetrotters. The prototype for Jordan's game was David "Skywalker" Thompson, whose career was cut short by substance abuse problems.
I think the 90s became the NBAs golden era because what we witnessed in Michael Jordan, but also Pippen, Drexler, Penny Hardaway, Wilkins, Johnson as guards, and Kemp, Barkley, Malone in the power forward position and in the context of Shaq and Hakeem and Mutumbo was the game we wanted to see, to see a man fly over a defender and slam the ball into a basket. These half-court set pieces against serious, physical defenses.
It was a transition era where the common sense was to load up the paint with twin-towers, and then people watched MJ and his generation jump over them.
In the 2010s and continuing somewhat to the present day, the common sense now consists of "small ball" - loading up the roster with 3-point shooters, a point guard might drive into the paint before tossing the ball out to an open man along the 3 point arc who passes the ball typically two more times along the arc to get someone an open look at a 3 point shot.
It's winning basketball (sort of, provided you have Steph Curry, the greatest pure shooter to ever play on your team, nobody else has really made it work) this play style would have been fully available in the 90s and 80s, it kind of just wasn't discovered.
It's problem being that it is off-peak. If we entertain the possibility that forthcoming generations of players may surpass Steph Curry's accuracy from the 3, we might imagine a future where having any defenders in the paint becomes obsolete, basketball becomes a very different game that consists of passing a ball around an arc, hoping to catch a defender off for an open look and shooting 3s.
The NBA is a business, if ratings and attendance and ad revenue and broadcast rights crashed, the players themselves would likely be calling for the removal of the 3-point line. On the flipside, had centers remained so dominant that the game became a formality of whose tall guy could run down to the other end for longer so he can deposit the ball in the basket, the NBA probably would consider lowering or raising the hoop.
The NBA is best in a transitional period, where there's genuine confusion about what type of player to build a team around and you get the fundamental uncertainty of rock-paper-scissors, and epic match-ups in the post season.
I feel peak sports balance strength, speed and coordination. Soccer does this, AFL does this, NBA does this. The 90s and 00s did this, and in the mid 2010s it began to fall apart, not only because Kerr's GSW perfected D'Antoni's 7-second or less offense, and let his players shoot 3s in volume, but also because the NBA had to accommodate an ageing Lebron and keep his lack of speed and athleticism viable in order to chase Jordan's 6 championships and 6 finals MVPs.
Bam, and seemingly numerous people don't seem to understand that just because 83 is bigger than 81 the performance isn't greater.
28 of Wilt Chamberlain's 100 points came from free throws, making a convenient 28%, furthermore the theory is that Wilt shot his free-throws granny style in that game because it was not televised, hence he made an unusual (for him) 28 of 30 attempts. Bam made 39 free throws of 43 or 46% of his 83 points, Kobe made 18 of 20 or 22% of his 81 points, lower than Wilt's ratio, a 5th versus a half vs a third with some rounding. Bam made less than half of his field goals, (he missed most of his shots) and made less than a third of his 3-pointers. In other words, it was a putrid performance outside of sheer volume.
Bryant's 81 is great because a) his team was down by 18 in the third quarter, he was in the game because they needed to overcome a massive deficit, not because they were beating up a bottom-tier team with no self-respect. b) Kobe made 60% from the field and 55% from 3 the kind of accuracy that defines an elite shooting performance, the greatest shooters in NBA history like Bird, Miller, Allen and Curry occasionally manage to average these kinds of percentages over a season. c) Kobe scored 55 points in the second half, he wasn't chasing a record, but a win.
In the end, Bam's probably done Kobe the bigger favour, his placement as a mediocrity in the short list of 80 point games will, contrary to predictions that in 30 years time nobody will scrutinise them, likely cement Kobe's 81 point game as the single greatest offensive performance in NBA history, it is likely people will, through the incongruity of basically a nobody chasing a meaningless stat-line, force many incensed by it to make arguments as to why 83 is not better than 81 simply because 83 is higher than 81, and in an ironic twist, argue themselves into the position that 81 turns out to be better than 100.
This piece of sporting trivia will demand explanation, it will force people to attain competency in understanding why a description is valuable and how that value collapses when it becomes a target.
Kobe's legacy is, and already was, his turning scoring into an artform. I've seen people invent criteria because something they value isn't being captured, and as applied to Kobe, it is rating him on "shot creation" and this is not unprecedented, Bill Russell was known for his shot blocking when it was not a statistic collected, Pistol Pete shot from beyond the 3-point line and made his shots when there was no 3-point line, people have retrospectively calculated what his points record would have been in college (a record he still holds at 44 ppg without a 3 point line) as 57 ppg.
Just as assists are kind of dubious, because the player that receives the crucial pass might miss, might take a dribble or might pass the ball again, I can see a future where a stat is collected on "shot creation" when a player effectively "assists themselves" through dribbling or footwork or pump-fakes.
With 1:25 remaining in the game, the Heat's Keshad Johnson was fouled and intentionally missed his second free throw off the front of the rim in an attempt to gain another possession for Adebayo
This is actually Lebron's legacy, just there aren't enough scholars alive to write up in prose, every time in the past 6 years the Lakers team took action to get Lebron points, an assist or a rebound, but it describes Goodhart's law, a player deliberately missing a free-throw in order to try and get the ball to the player chasing an arbitrary number.
As does the ESPN writer's description of Bam 'chucking' up three point shots when he is being triple-teamed (3 out of 5 defenders assigned to one player, Detroit famously had the "Jordan Rules" which was to triple team Jordan whenever he touched the ball) going for a record when you are up by twenty points under these conditions is a Guinness bullshit-record-the-longest-banjo-solo-played-with-a-salami farce.
Conclusion
This is how mediocrity works, this is what mediocrity looks like.
Economist Dan Davies wrote a book called 'lying for money' (please note I am not calling this incident any kind of grift or fraud, I am calling it more the 'no it isn't' response to an accusation of having a small-penis) the trouble with White-Collar crime, like financial fraud, is the usual police formula of "means-motive-opportunity" isn't as helpful, as basically any man who can afford a suit has the means and the motive and the opportunity to commit financial fraud.
So where fraud is under investigation, it needs to be means-rationalization-opportunity. The way you pick the fraudster, is the guy in the suit that says things like 'everybody is doing it' the people who are justifying themselves dipping their hand into the cookie jar.
I think this rationalization is also true of when Mediocrity pursues greatness. Bam had 60 points and his team were up by 20 against a team that was deliberately trying to lose games. He publicly shared his rationalization in his "I'm at 70 with 9 minutes to go" and implicitly agreed with his critics by saying "You should be blaming the head coach [of the Washington Wizards]. Get that first. I was not the one letting me go one-on-one the whole game until I had 70, and then you started to send a double."
I feel badly for Bam, because he is no Mayor Quimby presenting his pre-whacked snakes on whacking day. He is someone who didn't understand heading in that Kobe's 81 said something about Kobe, and that his 83 would say something very different about him.
But sometimes, like a shipwreck, our greatest contribution is as a warning to others.




